Bitcoin Price Analysis – Interim top is likely – Plucky Fresh Coin

Bitcoin (BTC) has exploded overheen the past week, smashing through the previous all time high of US$8300, and breaching US$9000 ter only 9 days. The market cap now stands at US$161 billion, with overheen US$Four.Two billion traded ter the last 24 hours. The intense buying occurs ter the setting of a few key events and metrics, mainstream adoption, institutional investment, and continued fork dividends/airdrops.

Coinbase recently reported that it has 13.Trio million users, up from Five.Five million ter January this year. The webpagina now has more users than the stock brokerage Charles Schwab and permits for instant buys up to $25,000 using a credit card. Purchasing boundaries can be raised substantially after providing utter identification information for KYC/AML purposes.

For the institutional investor, a cash-settled Bitcoin futures product is coming to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The product is slated to launch on December 11th. While it’s no bitcoin-backed ETF, which would be plugged directly into the market through various exchanges, the CME futures product represents enlargened legitimacy for Bitcoin and a way to build up Bitcoin exposure without custodial risk or security concerns. However, the future will have soft and hard thresholds on volatility which may be a problem for the product considering Bitcoin’s history of volatility.

A latest spate of high profile forks have provided BTC holders with a diversity of fresh cryptocurrency holdings. While forks are an integral part of open source software development, several projects have contentiously adopted the bitcoin brand. Latest forks include Bitcoin Contant on August 1st, Bitcoin Gold on October 24th, and Bitcoin Diamond with Super Bitcoin te the near future on block 498888.

Bitfinex is under scrutiny overheen its use of Tether (USD₮). The exchange’s API reports that 64,440BTC te trading has bot facilitated overheen the past 24 hours, which is near

50% of completo BTC/USD trades. However, the exchange uses a centralized cryptocurrency pegged to the US Dollar.

According to their webstek “every tether is always backed 1-to-1, by traditional currency held te our reserves. So 1 USD₮ is always omschrijving to 1 USD.” 725 million USD₮ has bot created thus far. A latest audit, on September 28th, by Friedman LLP shows US$443 million te reserves. However, the legitimacy of the audit has also bot questioned, due to the name of a fresh handelsbank having bot redacted from the document.

On November 19th, Tether announced that

31 million USD₮ had bot stolen from the network. The company wasgoed able to instantly blacklist the address and prevent the Tether from being used on any exchange. Tether then forked to recover the stolen funds. This mitigation process occurred swiftly due to Tether’s centralized and managed nature.

With the help of SegWit addresses, Bitcoin kasstuk a fresh all time high for total transactions vanaf day, processing 370,918 on November 21st. SegWit effectively increases block size to above 2MB. Blocks are presently averaging

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Despite the explosive growth of users on Coinbase, the company has yet to adopt SegWit addresses, which many users wish to use for cheaper transactions. SegWit makes all transactions cheaper than a similar non-SegWit transaction because it effectively reduces the size of the transaction ter the block. SegWit adoption presently stands at around 11%.

Hashrate and difficulty have remained stable since the Bitcoin Metselspecie mining profitability roll, which pulled 6 exahashes of hashing power. Bitcoin Difficulty wasgoed diminished on both of the last two adjustments, which has kept block times around Ten minutes.

Halong Mining announced a fresh ASIC miner promising the best efficiency presently available and will ship te March . A successful launch would bring some much needed diversity to the ASIC manufacturing market, which is lead by Chinese manufacturer Bitmain.

Overheen the last 24 hours, integral trading volume has exceeded US$Four.Two billion, being led by the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Bitfinex and Coincheck respectively. The South Korean Won (KRW) holds a significant premium overheen the USD and JPY pairs, suggesting difficulty arbitraging the difference on the South Korean exchanges.

Technical Analysis

After a week of consolidation around US$8000, bitcoin quickly broke resistance from a multi-month rising wedge, which typically retraces 50%. This pattern is now invalidated.

However, the bearish three drives is presently ter a brief accumulation zone, which will proceed until a price above the 1.272 fib extension, US$Ten,450, is reached. This pattern yields a pullback target around the 50% retracement spil well, US$4650.

On the daily chart, the Ichimoku Cloud proceeds to showcase bullish metrics after the Kijun bounce on November 12th. There are no signals suggesting a long entry on this timeframe, but the Cloud does suggest a very strong trend with elongated continuation.

On the four hour chart, the Ichimoku Cloud has continued to vertoning bullish signs since the Kumo breakout on November 15th. The 1.618 fib extension of the previous stir at US$9329 has bot surpassed, and is again growing the TK disequilibrium. A pullback to US$8600 is possible based on Kijun support.

The Pitchfork, which uses three anchor points to predict a price channel with diagonal potential reversal zones, also shows the expected bounce from the median line (crimson) support. Price proceeds to stir through the upper diagonal channel with upper-limit resistance nearing quickly. Based on the trend, resistance here should be expected, creating an interim top. A strong breakout above this diagonal resistance will indicate the beginning of a swifter moving trend.

Lastly, the OKEX quarterly futures rollover date is

22 days away. The rollover has had an alternating top/bottom price pattern inbetween contract expirations since . Based on this pattern, the top for the quarter will likely occur around December 17th.

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Conclusion

Fundamentals for user awareness and adoption have reached fresh heights. Both the casual and institutional investors are taking a serious look at Bitcoin spil a legitimate financial device. Network metrics suggest a finish recovery from a improvised dramatic loss of hashrate.

Technicals, including Pitchfork and the Bearish Three Drives, suggest an interim top is likely, despite the glowing fundamentals. There is strong evidence that a top for the quarter around mid December is very likely. If price reaches above US$Ten,500 on strong volume, thesis concerns vanish.

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